Dave Griffith's Blog

Recent Quotes about the Positive Signs in the Real Estate Market:

Americans Optimistic about Homeownership – AOL/Zogby Poll

Americans still feel optimistic about homeownership, according to a recent survey from AOL Real Estate and Zogby International. More than half of the survey respondents said they believe homeownership is still attainable for most people. Continued messaging about the long-term investment value of a home is taking hold:

Ø 69 percent of those surveyed said they see real estate as a viable investment; 31 percent of participants said they feel their home is worth more today than it was a year ago, and 56 percent do not think their home will be worth less in five years.

Ø The “buyers market” message is taking hold as well. According to the survey, if Americans had to sell today, 50 percent would consider buying another home instead of waiting out the market and renting.

-- “AOL/Zogby Survey: U.S. Trends on Home Values,” AOL Real Estate, April 21, 2008.

Positive Signs for Economy Provide Hope for the Housing Market

It's undeniable that there are some glimmers out there that the underlying economy and financing marketplace, which after all are what support real estate activity, finally may be headed in a positive direction.

Ø The latest Conference Board "Index of Leading Indicators," which is based on a broad survey of industry data and predicts economic activity three to six months down the road, registered its first increase in six months. The index suggests that there should be positive growth underway in the second half of the year, if not sooner.

Ø A new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research which found that industrial production in the U.S. showed an unexpected uptick in March.

-- “Real Estate Outlook: Index Says Positive Growth Underway,” by Kenneth Harney, Realty Times, April 24, 2008.

OFHEO: Home Prices Rise 0.6% in February

U.S. home prices rose 0.6% in February from the prior month, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Tuesday. The OFHEO index is based on repeat sales of homes mortgaged through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For February, prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in New England, and 0.3% in the Pacific region.

-- “U.S. Feb. OFHEO Home Prices Rise 0.6%,” by Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch, April 22, 2008.

Home Affordability Provides Opportunity for First Time Homebuyers

Ø “The home affordability index is at a 58 month high and I think that first-time buyers have noticed this. … Thirty-nine percent of homebuyers now are first-time homebuyers.”

Ø “Interest rates are at historic lows, inventory levels make this a buyer’s market because there’s a lot more to choose from and prices are relatively flat across most of the country.”

-- Jim Gillespie, president and CEO, Coldwell Banker, “Real Estate Realities – Interview with Jim Gillespie,” CNBC (video), April 22, 2008.

“I'm still a believer in the long-term viability of housing as a solid investment if you buy at the right price. This has me thinking that the current shakeout is in fact creating an interesting sweet spot for first-time homebuyers to at least start checking out the market.”

-- Suzie Orman, author and TV host, “This Could be the Time to Buy a House,” Detroit Free Press, April 21, 2008.

It's too early to talk of a trend, but lower house prices and mortgage rates are bringing buyers out of hibernation, at least in some markets. Provided sellers are prepared to cut prices, buyers are willing to bid, real estate agents say. “I'm seeing a lot more young purchasers. The phones are ringing, multiple offers, more showings, just a lot more activity than we were having.”

-- Lauralee Ensign, owner, Fairfield, Calif. real estate office, “Brokers Feel a Pulse in Home Market,”
by Lynn Adler, Reuters, April 16, 2008.

Regional Update: Good News from Markets around the Nation

San Francisco, Calif.

A market dynamics study for single-family dwellings and condominiums in San Francisco shows sale prices continue to climb. In March 2006, the median sale price was $780,000 and it jumped to $810,000 in March 2008. “There is a great deal of inventory in the marketplace, interest rates are low and, as this data clearly indicates, San Francisco continues to be one of the best performing areas in the entire country.”

-- Chuck Colliver, president of the board of directors of the San Francisco Association of REALTORS^®, “Median Sale Price of San Francisco Single-Family Dwellings and Condominiums Continue to Rise,” Business Wire, April 22, 2008.

Brevard County, Fla.

New numbers from the University of Central Florida said Brevard County was getting hit harder than anywhere else in Central Florida by the housing slump, but things could be changing. “It's actually increased over the last couple months. I'm surprised that they're still coming out with reports the housing market's down. We are swamped.”

-- Jason Bucci, a real estate agency sales manager, “Study: Brevard Housing Slump Worst in Central Florida,” News 13, April 21, 2008.

Spokane, Wash.

Fortunately for the local real estate market, the wintry weather has passed, and Spokane's housing industry still enjoys a key benefit: The area's diversified economy is in better shape than are many other parts of the nation. Forbes.com recently named Spokane the country's ninth-best metro area for business and careers. “We're bucking the trend that's around the country.”

-- Rob Higgins of the Spokane Association of Realtors, “Diversified Economy Helps Spokane Home Prices Hold Up,” USA Today, April 22, 2008.

Exciting new happenings all around Cape Charles in the last 2 weeks include Bay Creek, the STIP Park on the Harbor, the old Myers fish dock downtown and the old Fish factory across the harbor.  All of these activities indicate that we are truly in for an interesting spring and summer in the real estate business. 

Bay Creeks owner has sold a 50% interest in the development to a group owned by Sinclair Communications.  This infusion of capital will likely put on the fast track many of the infrastructure plans that have been langushing due to lack of capital or other issues.  Likely amenities that you will see include the Bayside village's carosel, pier, shops and more. 

The STIP Park which stands for Sustainable Technologies Industrial Park is over 100 acres of land between Bay Creek and the Harbor.  4 investors purchased the park from local government who had been unable to attract tenants to the park. Over 15 million dollars has been spent in the park over the years.  The new owners say they have committments from a major Yacht company to locate here as well as various suppliers to the Yacht company. 

A major development firm with hotels all over the world has unveiled plans for over 400 waterfront condos, shops and other commercial activities on the old Meyers property.  This kind of development along main street would make Mason Avenue come alive. 

The ower of the old Fish Factory has unveiled plans for a boat hotel and assorted commercial activities on this site.  It is long overdue and would be a big plus for the hundreds of boaters that come to Cape Charles during the fishing season and have to pull their rigs back to where ever they come from. 

If you would like more details or links to these stories in the local papers and or on the web just email me and I will forward them to you....Thanks, Dave

STATISTICS FOR 2007

Types of properties sold: Number sold:

Single family 174

Lots 66

Commercial 5

Farms/Acreage 6

Townhouse/Condo. 5

Mobile 7

______

Total 263

Co-brokes 121

Over $50 million in sales

406 sides closed

263 properties sold

14 Million Dollar Producers

9 Multi-Million Dollar Producers

Cooperative Sales-46% of total sales

Sides of sales that were $1million and over-7

Coldwell Banker continues to lead the pack on the Eastern Shore.  If you are thinking about listing your home for sale give me a call and lets talk about what we can do for you.  If your home is listed by our competition check out that Cooperative Sales stat....46% of total sales were us selling the competition's listings or them selling ours.  We work hard to sell real estate.  Our agents are dedicated and experienced.  We are looking forward to making 2008 a great year in Real Estate. 

Thanks,

Dave

Friday, December 21, 2007

By Bernice Ross
Inman News

In all the years I've been writing this column, I have never received such an outpouring of response as I did from the two November articles on how media coverage of negative housing news is hurting our industry.

In spite of gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors.

Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month's conference. Yun attributed much of today's subprime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that subprime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: "They gambled. They lost."

Yun's outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009.

According to Yun, one of the biggest mistakes that reporters make is talking about national trends. Nationally, 2007 was the fifth best year ever on record. Home prices declined about 1.5 percent after a 50 percent run up in prices.

The challenge is that national numbers are pretty much irrelevant. Yun argues that talking about national averages is about as effective as having a national weather forecast. Like the weather, all real estate markets are local. In fact, you may have a buyer's market and a seller's market operating within a single market area based exclusively upon price point. Here are the other key pieces of positive news from Yun's economic report:

1. New housing starts: Even though these are dropping, there was too much building in recent years. The market is simply adjusting to normal supply-and-demand pressures. The inventory is "being controlled which makes stabilization occur more quickly."

2. Foreclosures: According to Yun, the 41 percent increase in foreclosures has resulted primarily from investor-heavy real estate purchases in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The majority of these individuals are flippers whose investments did not payoff. More importantly, the number of foreclosures in Utah, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina is actually declining.

3. Under-priced markets and superstar cities: Although the coastal markets are still overpriced, Middle America is under priced. Nevertheless, Yun cites a new trend termed, "superstar" cities. These cities will command premium prices, regardless of what the market does. There is so much wealth concentrated in these areas, that measurements are simply not predictive. In addition to London, Paris, Tokyo and New York, Yun also identified San Francisco, Miami and Seattle as potential new superstar cities.

4. The recovery has started: Other than the three states hit heavily by job losses in the automotive industry (Indiana, Michigan and Ohio), the states that first experienced a downturn in the Northeast, are now in recovery. Specifically, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island were the first to feel the slump and are now well into a recovery. Furthermore, there appears to be a pent-up demand for first-time buyer properties due to a large number of Gen Ys (born 1977 to 1994) that are now buying their first homes. Falling interest rates will motivate many of these buyers to step into the market now.

5. New jobs and corporate profits are still strong: Corporate profits are still strong with companies as diverse as Microsoft and Jack Daniels reporting close to record profits. Furthermore, the economy has generated 4 million net new jobs and wages are rising.

6. A weak dollar may harbinger more foreign investment in U.S. real estate
Although the decline of the U.S. dollar will end up costing us more when we go overseas or purchase imports, it has resulted in more manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S. It also may mean more foreign investment in U.S. properties as well. Just a few years ago, the Canadian dollar was only worth 70 cents in U.S. currency. Today, the Canadian dollar has been hovering at about $1.05 to $1.10 U.S. What this means is that we can expect more Canadians and Europeans to be purchasing U.S. property, because our prices are approximately 50 percent cheaper than they were just three years ago.

7. Real estate: Still the best shelter: For those agents who represent reluctant first-time buyers, Yun points to some interesting research from the Federal Reserve. Between 1995 and 2004, the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In contrast, the average homeowner accumulated $184,400. Furthermore, the typical homeowner holds their property for six years. Within this period of time, NAR's research shows that approximately 97 percent of the homeowners will have a positive equity position after that period of time.

Bottom line: 2008 represents the best window that buyers will have to find excellent deals with excellent financing. Get the word out there. If they wait, prices and interest rates will be higher and the reluctant buyer may be forced out of the market.

This article came from the Richmond, Va. newspaper and gives the reader great insight into the barrier islands off our coast.  The links are to Cape Charles, the Barrier Island Museum and a slide show among others.  Let me know what you think of it.  Thanks, Dave

Click here: Sweet life on the Shore - Entertainment - inRich.com

If this link does not work copy and paste this into your browser:

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/entertainment.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-11-19-0031.html